Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+4.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+6.2 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | D+9.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | GreatBlue Research | R+2.4 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-31 | 681 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| GreatBlue Research | 2018-10-30 | 500 | R+2.4 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 780 | D+6.2 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-25 | 1201 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| GreatBlue Research | 2018-10-15 | 501 | D+3.4 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-08 | 828 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2018-10-05 | 767 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| GreatBlue Research | 2018-09-14 | 501 | D+6.2 | 3 |