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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Connecticut Governor
In the 2018 Connecticut Governor race, Edward Lamont (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
D+4.0
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+6.2 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+9.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | GreatBlue Research | R+2.4 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-315
GreatBlue Research2018-10-306
Emerson College2018-10-283
Quinnipiac University2018-10-250
GreatBlue Research2018-10-150
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Connecticut Governor race?
Edward Lamont (D) won, by about 3.7 points (D+3.7).
When was the 2018 Connecticut Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.