Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
R+1.7
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landmark Communications | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+2.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cygnal | R+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+0.2 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.9 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+5.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | 20/20 Insight | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | R+12.3 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/20 Insight | 2018-11-01 | 614 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-01 | 2171 | R+12.3 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-30 | 724 | R+2.1 | 1 |
| Cygnal | 2018-10-29 | 504 | R+2.2 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2018-10-28 | 623 | D+0.9 | 2 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2018-10-25 | 1091 | D+0.2 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2018-10-21 | 824 | R+0.7 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-16 | 554 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-08 | 1088 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2018-10-05 | 655 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-05 | 729 | EVEN | 1 |
| University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 2018-10-04 | 1232 | R+1.4 | 0 |
| Landmark Communications | 2018-10-01 | 964 | R+1.7 | 0 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2018-09-19 | 603 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2018-09-17 | 1955 | EVEN | 1 |