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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Georgia Governor
In the 2018 Georgia Governor race, Brian Kemp (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.4
Final polls said
R+1.7
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landmark Communications | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+2.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cygnal | R+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | D+0.2 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.9 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | 20/20 Insight | D+4.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 12 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 13 | Trafalgar Group | R+12.3 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 68% | 0.104 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 59% | 0.171 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
20/20 Insight2018-11-015
Trafalgar Group2018-11-0111
Emerson College2018-10-301
Cygnal2018-10-291
InsiderAdvantage2018-10-282
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Georgia Governor race?
Brian Kemp (R) won, by about 1.4 points (R+1.4).
When was the 2018 Georgia Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.