VotePredictor
past elections

Hawaii Governor

David Y. Ige (D) vs Andria P. L. Tupola (R)

Actual result
D+29.0
Final polls said
D+21.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.6
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorD+22.66.3
2MRG ResearchD+21.08.0

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
MRG Research2018-10-10961D+21.08