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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Massachusetts Governor
In the 2018 Massachusetts Governor race, Charles D. Baker (R) won by about 33 points.
Actual result
R+33.5
Final polls said
R+40.1
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western New England University Polling Institute | R+38.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+39.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | R+39.4 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | MassINC Polling Group | R+43.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
MassINC Polling Group2018-10-2710
Suffolk University2018-10-266
Western New England University Polling Institute2018-10-185
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion2018-10-046
MassINC Polling Group2018-09-1911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Massachusetts Governor race?
Charles D. Baker (R) won, by about 33.5 points (R+33.5).
When was the 2018 Massachusetts Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.