VotePredictor
past elections

Massachusetts Governor

Jay M. Gonzalez (D) vs Charles D. Baker (R)

Actual result
R+33.5
Final polls said
R+40.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+45.7
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Western New England University Polling InstituteR+38.04.5
2University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public OpinionR+39.05.5
3Suffolk UniversityR+39.45.9
4MassINC Polling GroupR+43.09.5
5VotePredictorR+45.712.2

Polls (6)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
MassINC Polling Group2018-10-27502R+43.010
Suffolk University2018-10-26500R+39.46
Western New England University Polling Institute2018-10-18402R+38.05
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion2018-10-04485R+39.06
MassINC Polling Group2018-09-19506R+44.011
Suffolk University2018-09-15500R+27.66