Actual result
R+33.5
Final polls said
R+40.1
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+45.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western New England University Polling Institute | R+38.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+39.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | R+39.4 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | MassINC Polling Group | R+43.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+45.7 | 12.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | 2018-10-27 | 502 | R+43.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-10-26 | 500 | R+39.4 | 6 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2018-10-18 | 402 | R+38.0 | 5 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2018-10-04 | 485 | R+39.0 | 6 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2018-09-19 | 506 | R+44.0 | 11 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-15 | 500 | R+27.6 | 6 |