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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Maine Governor
In the 2018 Maine Governor race, Janet T. Mills (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+8.5 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Slingshot Strategies | D+17.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Slingshot Strategies2018-11-019
Emerson College2018-10-280
Pan Atlantic Research2018-10-041
Change Research2018-09-300
Slingshot Strategies2018-09-280
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maine Governor race?
Janet T. Mills (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2018 Maine Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.