Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+8.5 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+10.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Slingshot Strategies | D+17.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slingshot Strategies | 2018-11-01 | 518 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 883 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2018-10-04 | 500 | D+8.5 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2018-09-30 | 801 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2018-09-28 | 600 | D+8.0 | 0 |