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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
New Hampshire Governor
In the 2018 New Hampshire Governor race, Chris Sununu (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+2.8
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+7.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 7.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-11-037
Emerson College2018-10-280
Change Research2018-10-286
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-10-144
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2018-10-123
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Hampshire Governor race?
Chris Sununu (R) won, by about 7.0 points (R+7.0).
When was the 2018 New Hampshire Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.