Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+2.8
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+7.3 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+10.9 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-11-03 | 630 | EVEN | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 1139 | R+7.3 | 0 |
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 901 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-10-14 | 499 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2018-10-12 | 454 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 788 | R+15.1 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2018-09-23 | 800 | R+5.0 | 2 |