Actual result
R+12.1
Final polls said
R+4.9
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+10.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Magellan Strategies | R+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+6.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Right Strategy Group | R+3.5 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | SoonerPoll.com | R+2.9 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoonerPoll.com | 2018-11-02 | 338 | R+2.9 | 9 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2018-10-24 | 447 | R+4.8 | 7 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2018-10-22 | 500 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2018-09-27 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| The Right Strategy Group | 2018-09-25 | 1058 | R+3.5 | 9 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2018-09-07 | 407 | R+2.4 | 10 |