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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Oregon Governor
In the 2018 Oregon Governor race, Kate Brown (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Riley Research Associates | D+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hoffman Research Group | D+3.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Clout Research | D+0.9 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Causeway Solutions | R+2.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 78% | 0.049 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Hoffman Research Group2018-10-293
Emerson College2018-10-271
DHM Research2018-10-081
Riley Research Associates2018-09-302
Clout Research2018-09-226
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oregon Governor race?
Kate Brown (D) won, by about 6.4 points (D+6.4).
When was the 2018 Oregon Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.