Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Riley Research Associates | D+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hoffman Research Group | D+3.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.5 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Clout Research | D+0.9 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Causeway Solutions | R+2.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research Group | 2018-10-29 | 694 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 747 | D+5.1 | 1 |
| DHM Research | 2018-10-08 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2018-09-30 | 356 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Clout Research | 2018-09-22 | 679 | D+0.9 | 6 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2018-09-12 | 680 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Causeway Solutions | 2018-09-08 | 2831 | R+2.0 | 8 |