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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Oregon Governor
In the 2018 Oregon Governor race, Kate Brown (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.4
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+5.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Riley Research Associates | D+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hoffman Research Group | D+3.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Clout Research | D+0.9 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Causeway Solutions | R+2.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.031 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Hoffman Research Group2018-10-293
Emerson College2018-10-271
DHM Research2018-10-081
Riley Research Associates2018-09-302
Clout Research2018-09-226
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oregon Governor race?
Kate Brown (D) won, by about 6.4 points (D+6.4).
When was the 2018 Oregon Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.