Actual result
D+15.5
Final polls said
D+10.8
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+14.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fleming & Associates | D+10.8 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SocialSphere | D+8.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+6.5 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2018-10-22 | 416 | D+10.8 | 5 |
| SocialSphere | 2018-10-07 | 502 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-10-01 | 503 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2018-09-16 | 420 | D+7.0 | 8 |