Actual result
R+14.9
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | R+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+17.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+10.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tulchin Research | R+8.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-31 | 885 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Braun Research | 2018-10-09 | 495 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| Tulchin Research | 2018-09-25 | 406 | R+8.0 | 7 |