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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Vermont Governor
In the 2018 Vermont Governor race, Phil Scott (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.9
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | R+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+10.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | R+8.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-315
Braun Research2018-10-091
Tulchin Research2018-09-257
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Vermont Governor race?
Phil Scott (R) won, by about 14.9 points (R+14.9).
When was the 2018 Vermont Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.