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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Vermont Governor
In the 2018 Vermont Governor race, Phil Scott (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.9
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braun Research | R+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+10.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | R+8.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2018-10-315
Braun Research2018-10-091
Tulchin Research2018-09-257
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Vermont Governor race?
Phil Scott (R) won, by about 14.9 points (R+14.9).
When was the 2018 Vermont Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.