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Toss-up · 2018 House
Arkansas House
In the 2018 Arkansas House race, French Hill (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.3
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+12.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Hendrix College2018-10-176
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arkansas House race?
French Hill (R) won, by about 6.3 points (R+6.3).
When was the 2018 Arkansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.