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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Darren Soto (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+16.0
Final polls said
D+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-048
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Darren Soto (D) won, by about 16.0 points (D+16.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.