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Toss-up · 2018 House
Florida House
In the 2018 Florida House race, Darren Soto (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+16.0
Final polls said
D+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2018-10-048
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Florida House race?
Darren Soto (D) won, by about 16.0 points (D+16.0).
When was the 2018 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2018.