Actual result
R+24.6
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+22.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategic Research Associates | R+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-29 | 789 | R+22.0 | 3 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-10-16 | 650 | R+21.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-10-01 | 704 | R+17.0 | 8 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-09-22 | 650 | R+24.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2018-09-10 | 701 | R+14.0 | 11 |