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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Dakota House
In the 2018 North Dakota House race, Kelly Armstrong (R) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
R+24.6
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+22.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategic Research Associates | R+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-293
Strategic Research Associates2018-10-164
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-018
Strategic Research Associates2018-09-221
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-09-1011
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Dakota House race?
Kelly Armstrong (R) won, by about 24.6 points (R+24.6).
When was the 2018 North Dakota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.