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Toss-up · 2018 House
North Dakota House
In the 2018 North Dakota House race, Kelly Armstrong (R) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
R+24.6
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+22.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategic Research Associates | R+21.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-293
Strategic Research Associates2018-10-164
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-10-018
Strategic Research Associates2018-09-221
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research2018-09-1011
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 North Dakota House race?
Kelly Armstrong (R) won, by about 24.6 points (R+24.6).
When was the 2018 North Dakota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.