Actual result
D+13.4
Final polls said
D+16.9
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+12.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+21.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+27.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+27.1 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-11-03 | 321 | D+21.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 569 | D+12.7 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-10-14 | 234 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2018-10-12 | 220 | D+27.1 | 14 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 401 | D+18.9 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2018-09-23 | 400 | D+27.0 | 14 |