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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2018 New Hampshire House race, Ann McLane Kuster (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.4
Final polls said
D+16.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+12.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+21.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+27.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+27.1 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-11-038
Emerson College2018-10-281
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-10-142
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2018-10-1214
Emerson College2018-10-116
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Hampshire House race?
Ann McLane Kuster (D) won, by about 13.4 points (D+13.4).
When was the 2018 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.