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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2018 New Hampshire House race, Ann McLane Kuster (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.4
Final polls said
D+16.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+12.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+21.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | D+27.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+27.1 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-11-038
Emerson College2018-10-281
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2018-10-142
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2018-10-1214
Emerson College2018-10-116
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Hampshire House race?
Ann McLane Kuster (D) won, by about 13.4 points (D+13.4).
When was the 2018 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2018.