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Toss-up · 2018 House
New Mexico House
In the 2018 New Mexico House race, Ben Ray Luján (D) won by about 32 points.
Actual result
D+32.2
Final polls said
D+20.8
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll Strategies | D+24.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+17.0 | 15.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Carroll Strategies2018-10-298
Emerson College2018-10-2515
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 New Mexico House race?
Ben Ray Luján (D) won, by about 32.2 points (D+32.2).
When was the 2018 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2018.