Actual result
D+32.2
Final polls said
D+20.8
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carroll Strategies | D+24.6 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+19.1 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+17.0 | 15.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll Strategies | 2018-10-29 | 410 | D+24.6 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-25 | 331 | D+17.0 | 15 |