Actual result
R+16.4
Final polls said
R+13.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.8 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-10-28 | 431 | R+13.0 | 3 |