Toss-up · 2018 House

Pennsylvania House

In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Conor Lamb (D) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

D+12.5

Final polls said

D+12.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+12.0	0.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 94%	0.003	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 80%	0.042	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 74%	0.069	✓

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMiss

Monmouth University Polling InstituteGrade B10-071