← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2018 Pennsylvania House race, Conor Lamb (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+12.5
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+12.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 79% | 0.045 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2018-10-071
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Pennsylvania House race?
Conor Lamb (D) won, by about 12.5 points (D+12.5).
When was the 2018 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.