Actual result
R+24.3
Final polls said
R+16.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+20.5 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+16.1 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+10.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 851 | R+10.0 | 14 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 514 | R+16.1 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-20 | 500 | R+23.0 | 1 |