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Toss-up · 2018 House
South Dakota House
In the 2018 South Dakota House race, Dusty Johnson (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+24.3
Final polls said
R+16.4
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+16.1 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+10.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-0314
Emerson College2018-11-038
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 South Dakota House race?
Dusty Johnson (R) won, by about 24.3 points (R+24.3).
When was the 2018 South Dakota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.