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Toss-up · 2018 House
South Dakota House
In the 2018 South Dakota House race, Dusty Johnson (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+24.3
Final polls said
R+16.4
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+16.1 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | R+10.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-0314
Emerson College2018-11-038
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-201
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 South Dakota House race?
Dusty Johnson (R) won, by about 24.3 points (R+24.3).
When was the 2018 South Dakota House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.