Actual result
D+24.2
Final polls said
D+24.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+24.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+24.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+25.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | MassINC Polling Group | D+22.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | D+21.2 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+30.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | 2018-10-27 | 502 | D+22.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-10-26 | 500 | D+21.2 | 3 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2018-10-18 | 402 | D+30.0 | 6 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2018-10-04 | 485 | D+25.0 | 1 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2018-09-19 | 506 | D+26.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-15 | 500 | D+29.4 | 5 |