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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Massachusetts Senate
In the 2018 Massachusetts Senate race, Elizabeth Warren (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+24.2
Final polls said
D+24.4
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+25.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | MassINC Polling Group | D+22.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+21.2 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+30.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
MassINC Polling Group2018-10-272
Suffolk University2018-10-263
Western New England University Polling Institute2018-10-186
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion2018-10-041
MassINC Polling Group2018-09-192
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Massachusetts Senate race?
Elizabeth Warren (D) won, by about 24.2 points (D+24.2).
When was the 2018 Massachusetts Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.