Actual result
D+34.5
Final polls said
D+33.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+39.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+28.7 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+27.9 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2018-10-03 | 806 | D+27.9 | 7 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2018-09-13 | 472 | D+39.0 | 4 |