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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Maryland Senate
In the 2018 Maryland Senate race, Benjamin L. Cardin (D) won by about 35 points.
Actual result
D+34.5
Final polls said
D+33.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+39.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+27.9 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.2018-10-037
Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics2018-09-134
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maryland Senate race?
Benjamin L. Cardin (D) won, by about 34.5 points (D+34.5).
When was the 2018 Maryland Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.