← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Maine Senate
In the 2018 Maine Senate race, the Democratic-Republican margin was R+24.8. This was not a two-party contest, so that margin does not identify the winner and VotePredictor does not name one.
Actual result
R+24.8
Final polls said
R+31.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wick | R+28.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+21.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | R+20.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+31.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.966 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-287
Digital Research2018-10-125
Pan Atlantic Research2018-10-043
Wick2018-09-293
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maine Senate race?
VotePredictor does not publish a winner for this race. It tracks the two-party Democratic-Republican margin, which was R+24.8, and this was not a two-party contest — so that margin does not identify the winner.
When was the 2018 Maine Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.