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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Maine Senate
In the 2018 Maine Senate race, Eric L. Brakey (R) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
R+24.8
Final polls said
R+31.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wick | R+28.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+21.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | R+20.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+31.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.966 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-287
Digital Research2018-10-125
Pan Atlantic Research2018-10-043
Wick2018-09-293
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Maine Senate race?
Eric L. Brakey (R) won, by about 24.8 points (R+24.8).
When was the 2018 Maine Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.