Actual result
R+24.8
Final polls said
R+31.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+34.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wick | R+28.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+21.4 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | R+20.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+31.4 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+34.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.966 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-28 | 883 | R+31.4 | 7 |
| Digital Research | 2018-10-12 | 600 | R+20.0 | 5 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2018-10-04 | 500 | R+21.4 | 3 |
| Wick | 2018-09-29 | 750 | R+28.0 | 3 |