Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Montana Senate

In the 2018 Montana Senate race, Jon Tester (D) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

D+3.5

Final polls said

D+3.8

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab	D+3.1	0.4	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	D+4.0	0.5	✓
3	Gravis Marketing	D+3.0	0.5	✓
4	YouGov	D+2.0	1.5	✓
5	Trafalgar Group	D+1.1	2.4	✓
6	Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group	D+7.0	3.5	✓
7	Axis Research	EVEN	3.5	✗
8	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+7.8	4.3	✓
9	Montana State University Billings	D+9.0	5.5	✓
10	Change Research	R+3.0	6.5	✗
11	University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory	D+10.1	6.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 78%	0.047	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 76%	0.058	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 74%	0.065	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 74%	0.068	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—