Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+3.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | D+3.1 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.1 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Axis Research | EVEN | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+7.8 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Montana State University Billings | D+9.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory | D+10.1 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 77% | 0.052 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 74% | 0.065 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-11-04 | 953 | D+1.1 | 2 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-03 | 500 | D+7.8 | 4 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 879 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-29 | 500 | D+6.7 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-28 | 700 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-25 | 782 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| University of Montana Social Science Research Laboratory | 2018-10-14 | 533 | D+10.1 | 7 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2018-10-10 | 471 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-28 | 594 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2018-09-25 | 2079 | D+3.1 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-09-21 | 710 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Axis Research | 2018-09-18 | 480 | EVEN | 4 |
| YouGov | 2018-09-12 | 453 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 2018-09-11 | 950 | D+7.0 | 3 |