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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Nevada Senate
In the 2018 Nevada Senate race, Jacky Rosen (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+0.8
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Vox Populi Polling | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+0.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | KFF | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | Ipsos | R+5.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.214 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-043
Emerson College2018-11-031
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-11-016
Trafalgar Group2018-10-318
Harris Insights & Analytics2018-10-272
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Nevada Senate race?
Jacky Rosen (D) won, by about 5.0 points (D+5.0).
When was the 2018 Nevada Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.