Toss-up · 2018 Senate

Nevada Senate

In the 2018 Nevada Senate race, Jacky Rosen (D) won by about 5 points.

Jacky Rosen· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+5.0

Final polls said

D+0.8

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+4.5	0.5	✓
2	SSRS	D+3.0	2.0	✓
3	Harris Insights & Analytics	D+2.3	2.7	✓
4	Gravis Marketing	D+2.0	3.0	✓
5	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	3.0	✓
6	Vox Populi Polling	D+2.0	3.0	✓
7	Suffolk University	D+0.4	4.6	✓
8	KFF	R+1.0	6.0	✗
9	Marist College	R+2.0	7.0	✗
10	The New York Times/Siena College	R+2.0	7.1	✗
11	Trafalgar Group	R+3.3	8.3	✗
12	Ipsos	R+5.7	10.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 64%	0.130	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 56%	0.194	✓
4	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 54%	0.214	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 53%	0.224	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.360	✗