Actual result
D+5.0
Final polls said
D+0.8
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+4.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+2.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Vox Populi Polling | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+0.4 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | KFF | R+1.0 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 10 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | R+2.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.3 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Ipsos | R+5.7 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 54% | 0.214 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 51% | 0.243 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-04 | 600 | D+2.3 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 1197 | D+4.5 | 1 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-11-01 | 600 | R+0.8 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2018-10-31 | 2587 | R+3.3 | 8 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2018-10-27 | 1400 | D+2.9 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2018-10-26 | 622 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-10-25 | 773 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-16 | 1137 | R+5.7 | 11 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-15 | 648 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-14 | 614 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2018-10-11 | 625 | R+6.7 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-09 | 642 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-02 | 574 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| SSRS | 2018-09-27 | 693 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| KFF | 2018-09-25 | 513 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2018-09-12 | 1039 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2018-09-11 | 700 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2018-09-07 | 500 | D+0.4 | 5 |