Actual result
D+23.1
Final polls said
D+19.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SocialSphere | D+24.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+24.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+20.5 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fleming & Associates | D+19.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2018-10-22 | 416 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| SocialSphere | 2018-10-07 | 502 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2018-10-01 | 503 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2018-09-16 | 420 | D+19.0 | 4 |