Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+5.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Targoz Market Research | D+19.0 | 18.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2019-10-31 | 1117 | R+5.9 | 6 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2019-10-17 | 401 | D+19.0 | 19 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2019-10-12 | 625 | EVEN | 0 |