Actual result
R+24.4
Final polls said
R+22.1
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+24.9 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ragnar Research Partners | R+26.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+30.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | R+18.3 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | BK Strategies | R+39.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | R+6.0 | 18.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | 2020-10-22 | 600 | R+18.3 | 6 |
| Ragnar Research Partners | 2020-10-20 | 629 | R+26.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 685 | R+30.0 | 6 |
| BK Strategies | 2020-10-04 | 600 | R+39.0 | 15 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 1033 | R+6.0 | 18 |