Actual result
R+12.9
Final polls said
R+3.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+12.3 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | R+7.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+5.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | R+4.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | RMG Research | R+3.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Montana State University Billings | EVEN | 12.9 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 920 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2020-10-21 | 546 | EVEN | 13 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 758 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-17 | 500 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-17 | 800 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-06 | 500 | R+12.3 | 1 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2020-09-23 | 1615 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-15 | 625 | R+6.0 | 7 |