Actual result
R+31.8
Final polls said
R+19.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+25.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+24.2 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+24.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+23.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+20.5 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+14.8 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 26.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2020-10-27 | 600 | R+5.0 | 27 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-26 | 864 | R+24.0 | 8 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-25 | 1018 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-21 | 757 | R+23.0 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-11 | 899 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-10-10 | 500 | R+24.2 | 8 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-03 | 1147 | R+23.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-30 | 700 | R+14.8 | 17 |
| American Research Group | 2020-09-27 | 600 | R+8.0 | 24 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-09-26 | 972 | R+18.0 | 14 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-21 | 657 | R+26.0 | 6 |