Actual result
R+32.6
Final polls said
R+25.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lighthouse Research | R+35.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+29.5 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Y2 Analytics | R+25.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | RMG Research | R+24.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-10-19 | 660 | R+25.0 | 8 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-14 | 1000 | R+24.0 | 9 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-09-30 | 1214 | R+28.0 | 5 |
| RMG Research | 2020-09-09 | 1000 | R+33.0 | 0 |
| Lighthouse Research | 2020-09-06 | 504 | R+35.4 | 3 |