Actual result
D+13.4
Final polls said
D+18.2
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+16.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | D+16.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+17.1 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | D+18.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 474 | D+18.2 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-14 | 610 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-10 | 591 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-09-11 | 501 | D+16.0 | 3 |