Actual result
D+19.0
Final polls said
D+13.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+13.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+13.9 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-17 | 511 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-09-20 | 534 | D+14.0 | 5 |