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Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, Sara Jacobs (D) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
D+19.0
Final polls said
D+13.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2020-10-176
SurveyUSA2020-09-205
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
Sara Jacobs (D) won, by about 19.0 points (D+19.0).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.