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Toss-up · 2020 House
Iowa House
In the 2020 Iowa House race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
EVEN
Final polls said
D+13.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+13.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.548 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 83% | 0.690 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.774 | ✗ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 93% | 0.862 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 96% | 0.923 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Monmouth University Polling Institute2020-10-1713
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Iowa House race?
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) won, by about 0.0 points (EVEN).
When was the 2020 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.