Actual result
D+24.3
Final polls said
D+27.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+26.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+26.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Colby College | D+27.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+19.7 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Digital Research | D+34.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 426 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 300 | D+19.7 | 5 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 232 | D+34.0 | 10 |