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Toss-up · 2020 House
Montana House
In the 2020 Montana House race, Matt Rosendale (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+12.8
Final polls said
R+1.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+1.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | RMG Research | EVEN | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 54% | 0.207 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Montana State University Billings2020-10-2112
The New York Times/Siena College2020-10-199
RMG Research2020-10-1713
Strategies 3602020-10-1713
Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab2020-09-2311
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Montana House race?
Matt Rosendale (R) won, by about 12.8 points (R+12.8).
When was the 2020 Montana House election held?
It was held in November 2020.