Actual result
R+12.8
Final polls said
R+1.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+2.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.2 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Montana State University Billings | R+1.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | RMG Research | EVEN | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Strategies 360 | EVEN | 12.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.151 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 56% | 0.196 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | 2020-10-21 | 546 | R+1.0 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 758 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-17 | 800 | EVEN | 13 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-17 | 500 | EVEN | 13 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2020-09-23 | 1615 | R+2.0 | 11 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-15 | 625 | D+3.0 | 16 |