Toss-up · 2020 House

Montana House

In the 2020 Montana House race, Matt Rosendale (R) won by about 13 points.

Actual result

R+12.8

Final polls said

R+1.3

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	8.8	✓
2	Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab	R+2.0	10.8	✓
3	Montana State University Billings	R+1.0	11.8	✓
4	RMG Research	EVEN	12.8	✗
5	Strategies 360	EVEN	12.8	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 78%	0.048	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 65%	0.122	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 61%	0.151	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 54%	0.207	✓