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Toss-up · 2020 House
New Hampshire House
In the 2020 New Hampshire House race, Ann McLane Kuster (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+15.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-260
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-255
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-10-116
Saint Anselm College Survey Center2020-10-034
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2020-09-264
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Hampshire House race?
Ann McLane Kuster (D) won, by about 10.2 points (D+10.2).
When was the 2020 New Hampshire House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.