Actual result
D+10.2
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+10.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.6 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+15.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 86% | 0.021 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-26 | 412 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-25 | 458 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-11 | 410 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-03 | 552 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-09-26 | 463 | D+6.0 | 4 |