← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
New York House
In the 2020 New York House race, Thomas Reed (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2020-09-288
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New York House race?
Thomas Reed (R) won, by about 14.6 points (R+14.6).
When was the 2020 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.