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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Roger Williams (R) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
R+13.8
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMC Research | R+2.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
EMC Research2020-09-0412
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Roger Williams (R) won, by about 13.8 points (R+13.8).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.