Actual result
R+10.1
Final polls said
R+7.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+11.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Alaska Survey Research | R+4.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Patinkin Research Strategies | R+3.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+1.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 770 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 634 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-19 | 800 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 423 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 1001 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-02 | 600 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2020-09-29 | 676 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2020-09-22 | 602 | R+1.0 | 9 |