Toss-up · 2020 President

Alaska President

In the 2020 Alaska President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

R+10.1

Final polls said

R+7.7

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Gravis Marketing	R+9.0	1.1	✓
2	SurveyMonkey	R+9.0	1.1	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	R+6.0	4.1	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	R+5.0	5.1	✓
5	Alaska Survey Research	R+4.0	6.1	✓
6	Patinkin Research Strategies	R+3.0	7.1	✓
7	Harstad Strategic Research	R+1.0	9.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
5	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓