Actual result
R+25.5
Final polls said
R+20.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.3 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+26.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Data for Progress | R+20.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | R+19.2 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | R+17.2 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Moore Information Group | R+17.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 330 | R+17.2 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1045 | R+20.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1808 | R+26.0 | 1 |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 2020-10-25 | 853 | R+19.2 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 266 | R+18.6 | 7 |
| Moore Information Group | 2020-10-13 | 504 | R+17.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 2781 | R+22.0 | 3 |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 2020-10-02 | 1072 | R+19.6 | 6 |