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Toss-up · 2020 President
Alabama President
In the 2020 Alabama President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 25 points.
Actual result
R+25.5
Final polls said
R+20.2
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+26.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+20.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | R+19.2 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Swayable | R+17.2 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+17.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Swayable2020-10-298
Data for Progress2020-10-295
SurveyMonkey2020-10-261
Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration2020-10-256
Swayable2020-10-257
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Alabama President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 25.5 points (R+25.5).
When was the 2020 Alabama President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.