Actual result
R+14.7
Final polls said
R+12.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | R+14.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+14.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+16.1 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | co/efficient | R+17.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+12.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+11.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Civiqs | R+10.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+7.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1121 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2321 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-19 | 897 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| co/efficient | 2020-10-19 | 2453 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 755 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 2718 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2020-09-28 | 677 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2020-09-26 | 306 | R+14.4 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 883 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| co/efficient | 2020-09-15 | 794 | R+12.0 | 3 |