Toss-up · 2020 President

Kansas President

In the 2020 Kansas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 15 points.

Actual result

R+14.7

Final polls said

R+12.2

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs	R+14.4	0.3	✓
2	Data for Progress	R+14.0	0.7	✓
3	co/efficient	R+17.0	2.3	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	R+12.0	2.7	✓
5	SurveyMonkey	R+11.0	3.7	✓
6	Civiqs	R+10.0	4.7	✓
7	The New York Times/Siena College	R+7.0	7.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	Race to the WH	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓