Actual result
R+25.9
Final polls said
R+15.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+21.6 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | R+20.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+20.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+17.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Swayable | R+13.5 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Bluegrass Community and Technical College | R+13.2 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 383 | R+13.5 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2009 | R+19.0 | 7 |
| Bluegrass Community and Technical College | 2020-10-22 | 250 | R+13.2 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2020-10-14 | 625 | R+17.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 2908 | R+15.0 | 11 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-16 | 807 | R+20.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 1164 | R+20.0 | 6 |