Toss-up · 2020 President

Kentucky President

In the 2020 Kentucky President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 26 points.

Actual result

R+25.9

Final polls said

R+15.2

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Data for Progress	R+20.0	5.9	✓
2	Quinnipiac University	R+20.0	5.9	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	R+19.0	6.9	✓
4	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+17.0	8.9	✓
5	Swayable	R+13.5	12.4	✓
6	Bluegrass Community and Technical College	R+13.2	12.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
8	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
10	RealClearPolitics	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 92%	0.006	✓