Actual result
D+23.1
Final polls said
D+20.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colby College | D+22.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+21.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+21.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+20.6 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+19.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+17.5 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Digital Research | D+32.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | D+32.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 549 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 310 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 498 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 426 | D+22.0 | 1 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 300 | D+17.5 | 6 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 232 | D+32.0 | 9 |
| Colby College | 2020-09-20 | 416 | D+18.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-19 | 267 | D+21.7 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 707 | D+32.0 | 9 |