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Toss-up · 2020 President
M2 President
In the 2020 M2 President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
R+7.4
Final polls said
D+2.8
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | R+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+1.3 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+3.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | Colby College | D+4.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 9 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 16.4 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-318
Emerson College2020-10-3010
SurveyUSA2020-10-2510
Colby College2020-10-2311
Pan Atlantic Research2020-10-0411
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 M2 President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 7.4 points (R+7.4).
When was the 2020 M2 President election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.