Actual result
R+7.4
Final polls said
D+2.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | R+8.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.2 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+1.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | D+1.3 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+2.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+3.5 | 10.9 | ✗ |
| 9 | Colby College | D+4.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 16.4 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 475 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 301 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 509 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 453 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 300 | D+3.5 | 11 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 234 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Colby College | 2020-09-20 | 425 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-19 | 233 | D+1.3 | 9 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 440 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 476 | D+9.0 | 16 |