Actual result
D+33.2
Final polls said
D+32.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+32.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+32.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | OpinionWorks | D+32.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+35.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+31.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Swayable | D+35.9 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | D+29.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+25.1 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 503 | D+35.9 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 3216 | D+35.0 | 2 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2020-10-21 | 820 | D+25.1 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 4647 | D+34.0 | 1 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2020-10-02 | 776 | D+31.0 | 2 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-30 | 650 | D+29.0 | 4 |
| OpinionWorks | 2020-09-08 | 753 | D+32.0 | 1 |