Toss-up · 2020 President

Maine President

In the 2020 Maine President race, Joe Biden (D) won by about 9 points.

Actual result

D+9.1

Final polls said

D+12.7

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Pan Atlantic Research	D+10.6	1.5	✓
2	Digital Research	D+11.0	1.9	✓
3	Emerson College	D+11.4	2.3	✓
4	Change Research	D+12.0	2.9	✓
5	Suffolk University	D+12.2	3.1	✓
6	SurveyUSA	D+13.0	3.9	✓
7	Colby College	D+13.0	3.9	✓
8	SurveyMonkey	D+14.0	4.9	✓
9	Data for Progress	D+14.0	4.9	✓
10	The New York Times/Siena College	D+17.0	7.9	✓
11	Quinnipiac University	D+21.0	11.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
2	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓