Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+12.7
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+10.6 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+11.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+11.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+11.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+12.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+12.2 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Colby College | D+13.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | D+14.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Data for Progress | D+14.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+17.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Quinnipiac University | D+21.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 1024 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 611 | D+11.4 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1274 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-25 | 1007 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Colby College | 2020-10-23 | 879 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 1430 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2020-10-04 | 600 | D+10.6 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2020-09-29 | 466 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 718 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Colby College | 2020-09-20 | 847 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-19 | 500 | D+12.2 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-13 | 663 | D+17.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 1183 | D+21.0 | 12 |