Actual result
R+15.4
Final polls said
R+8.9
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Swayable | R+11.2 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+10.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | R+9.4 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+8.6 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Remington Research Group | R+5.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group | 2020-10-28 | 1010 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 487 | R+11.2 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1109 | R+9.4 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2926 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-10-14 | 1010 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 3955 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-30 | 931 | R+8.6 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-30 | 600 | R+2.0 | 13 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-09-30 | 980 | R+5.0 | 10 |
| Remington Research Group | 2020-09-16 | 1046 | R+8.0 | 7 |