Toss-up · 2020 President

Missouri President

In the 2020 Missouri President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 15 points.

Actual result

R+15.4

Final polls said

R+8.9

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Swayable	R+11.2	4.2	✓
2	SurveyMonkey	R+10.0	5.4	✓
3	Morning Consult	R+9.4	6.0	✓
4	YouGov	R+8.6	6.8	✓
5	Remington Research Group	R+5.0	10.4	✓
6	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	R+2.0	13.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
7	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
11	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓