Actual result
R+16.4
Final polls said
R+5.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+12.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.7 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | R+8.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Montana State University Billings | R+7.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | R+7.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | RMG Research | R+4.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 14.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 920 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1021 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-26 | 886 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2020-10-21 | 546 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-19 | 758 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-17 | 800 | R+4.0 | 12 |
| Strategies 360 | 2020-10-17 | 500 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-09 | 798 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 986 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-06 | 500 | R+12.8 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-02 | 737 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab | 2020-09-23 | 1615 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-15 | 625 | R+7.0 | 9 |