Toss-up · 2020 President

Montana President

In the 2020 Montana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 16 points.

Actual result

R+16.4

Final polls said

R+5.4

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+12.8	3.6	✓
2	Strategies 360	R+8.0	8.4	✓
3	Montana State University Billings	R+7.0	9.4	✓
4	Montana State University Bozeman Human Ecology Learning and Problem Solving Lab	R+7.0	9.4	✓
5	SurveyMonkey	R+6.0	10.4	✓
6	The New York Times/Siena College	R+6.0	10.4	✓
7	Data for Progress	R+6.0	10.4	✓
8	Change Research	R+5.0	11.4	✓
9	RMG Research	R+4.0	12.4	✓
10	Public Policy Polling	R+2.0	14.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.032	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 80%	0.040	✓
11	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓