Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+3.8
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+6.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | D+5.9 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+3.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+2.6 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+2.4 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | FM3 Research | D+11.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Nevada, Las Vegas Lee Business School | 2020-11-01 | 191 | D+5.9 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 547 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-29 | 806 | D+2.6 | 4 |
| FM3 Research | 2020-10-03 | 450 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-26 | 420 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2020-09-15 | 400 | D+6.0 | 1 |