Actual result
R+33.4
Final polls said
R+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.9 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+20.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | DFM Research | R+14.0 | 19.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 402 | R+20.0 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 511 | R+19.0 | 14 |
| DFM Research | 2020-09-28 | 460 | R+14.0 | 19 |
| DFM Research | 2020-09-14 | 500 | R+19.0 | 14 |