Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
D+6.3
27 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+2.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+3.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data Orbital | D+1.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Y2 Analytics | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Latino Decisions | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Basswood Research | R+1.1 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | D+5.8 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | HighGround Inc. | D+6.5 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | SSRS | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 21 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 22 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 23 | Data for Progress | D+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | KFF | D+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Ipsos | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 27 | Swayable | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 28 | The Justice Collaborative Institute | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 29 | Targoz Market Research | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 30 | YouGov | D+11.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 31 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+12.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 32 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+12.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 33 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+17.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
Polls (60)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 409 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2020-10-31 | 717 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-30 | 610 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 732 | D+2.7 | 0 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 333 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1195 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-29 | 550 | D+1.1 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-28 | 1252 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-28 | 800 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| SSRS | 2020-10-27 | 865 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 704 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 1059 | D+3.5 | 1 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 286 | D+11.6 | 9 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-10-24 | 716 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-24 | 714 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| The Justice Collaborative Institute | 2020-10-24 | 1007 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-23 | 729 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 2020-10-21 | 725 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-10-21 | 500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2020-10-19 | 700 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-18 | 658 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-18 | 232 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-18 | 800 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-17 | 550 | D+6.2 | 4 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-16 | 800 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 1066 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-15 | 1065 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-11 | 667 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-10-11 | 502 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2020-10-08 | 1045 | D+1.9 | 0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-10-06 | 608 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Basswood Research | 2020-10-04 | 800 | R+1.1 | 3 |
| Data Orbital | 2020-10-04 | 550 | D+5.5 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2020-10-03 | 633 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2020-10-03 | 296 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Latino Decisions | 2020-10-02 | 600 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2020-10-02 | 400 | D+6.5 | 4 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-10-02 | 604 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-02 | 655 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-09-28 | 500 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2020-09-27 | 1045 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2020-09-27 | 500 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-26 | 1048 | D+13.0 | 11 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 808 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-19 | 481 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-19 | 262 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2020-09-18 | 400 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2020-09-17 | 579 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 907 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2020-09-15 | 800 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2020-09-14 | 855 | D+17.0 | 15 |
| Ipsos | 2020-09-13 | 565 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2020-09-13 | 420 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-12 | 653 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Patinkin Research Strategies | 2020-09-12 | 679 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-10 | 1102 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-09-10 | 684 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2020-09-09 | 600 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| KFF | 2020-09-06 | 1298 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2020-09-05 | 470 | D+6.0 | 4 |