Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Arizona Senate

In the 2020 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+2.4

Final polls said

D+6.3

27 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+2.7	0.4	✓
2	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	D+2.0	0.4	✓
3	Trafalgar Group	D+1.9	0.5	✓
4	Morning Consult	D+3.5	1.1	✓
5	Data Orbital	D+1.1	1.3	✓
6	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+1.0	1.4	✓
7	Change Research	D+4.0	1.6	✓
8	Y2 Analytics	D+4.0	1.6	✓
9	Rasmussen Reports	D+5.0	2.6	✓
10	Gravis Marketing	D+5.0	2.6	✓
11	Noble Predictive Insights	D+5.0	2.6	✓
12	Latino Decisions	D+5.0	2.6	✓
13	Basswood Research	R+1.1	3.5	✗
14	Marist College	D+6.0	3.6	✓
15	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+6.0	3.6	✓
16	HighGround Inc.	D+6.5	4.2	✓
17	The New York Times/Siena College	D+7.0	4.7	✓
18	SSRS	D+7.0	4.7	✓
19	Patinkin Research Strategies	D+7.0	4.7	✓
20	RMG Research	D+7.0	4.7	✓
21	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	R+3.0	5.3	✗
22	Data for Progress	D+8.0	5.7	✓
23	KFF	D+8.0	5.7	✓
24	Ipsos	D+9.0	6.7	✓
25	Suffolk University	D+9.0	6.7	✓
26	Swayable	D+10.0	7.7	✓
27	The Justice Collaborative Institute	D+10.0	7.7	✓
28	Targoz Market Research	D+10.0	7.7	✓
29	YouGov	D+11.0	8.7	✓
30	Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	D+12.0	9.7	✓
31	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+12.0	9.7	✓
32	Redfield & Wilton Strategies	D+17.0	14.7	✓