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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2020 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
D+6.3
27 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+2.7 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Morning Consult | D+3.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data Orbital | D+1.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+1.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Change Research | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Y2 Analytics | D+4.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Latino Decisions | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Basswood Research | R+1.1 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | HighGround Inc. | D+6.5 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 17 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | SSRS | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Patinkin Research Strategies | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | RMG Research | D+7.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 21 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 22 | Data for Progress | D+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | KFF | D+8.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Ipsos | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 26 | Swayable | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 27 | The Justice Collaborative Institute | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 28 | Targoz Market Research | D+10.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 29 | YouGov | D+11.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 30 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | D+12.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 31 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+12.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 32 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | D+17.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
60 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-312
Marist College2020-10-314
Ipsos2020-10-307
Emerson College2020-10-300
Swayable2020-10-298
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arizona Senate race?
Mark Kelly (D) won, by about 2.4 points (D+2.4).
When was the 2020 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.